A mail from John Mauldin has just hit my inbox. He picks up on a comment by Soc Gen showing that analysts are always behind the curve when it comes to earnings forecasts (did you know this?). He goes on to conclude that the likely fall in company earnings this recession is nowhere near being discounted by the share market (see http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/index.asp article ‘Asleep at the wheel’).

I’ve borrowed from the newsletter an interesting slide summarising a recent Duke University CFO survey which strengthens my argument for watching directors behaviour, in preference to listening to what they say. Notably that

..CFOs are around 57% optimistic about the economy…., but are 68% optimistic about the outlook for their own firms!’

Duke University CFO Survey