You are currently browsing the category archive for the ‘FTSE 100’ category.
In HSBC (HSBA, 790p) I see a strong, well managed, diversified global bank, with a higher exposure to the growth markets of Asia than its (now nationalised) compatriots on the London Stock Exchange.
I notice though the first significant signs of Chinese slowdown in the announcement on Thursday by Australia Iron Ore producer Mt Gibson (MGX, 71c) that their Chinese customers want to delay shipments.
In their statement (link to co website) Mt Gibson say ‘ Customer and iron ore sector analysis indicates a slow down in demand for iron ore in China due to current economic uncertainty and the tightening of credit facilities’.
Whose ‘credit facilities’ I wonder, the Chinese or their Western customers?
I also notice directors share sales at HSBC, wth a DD John, a ‘PDMR’ (senior manager but not group board member) selling 61434 shares at 907p on October 1st.
Reviewing other directors sales over the past twelve months I find sales taking place at between 766p and 884p between October 2007 and June 2008 totalling around 400,000 shares or GBP 4m. Directors who have sold include Hughes Hallett (non exec), Almeida (non exec), Green (Chairman), Flint (CFO), and Geoghahan (CEO). For full details go to www.digitallook.com or to the HSBC company website.
I wonder how long HSBC can weather the storm that banks in the rest of the world are currently embroiled in. I think the price levels at which share sales by six directors took place are a good indicator of a medium term peak level for HSBC shares.
Signal: Negative- Directors selling
Signal Strength: MEDIUM
October 17: Anecdotal information on the Chinese economy from a contact in Hong Kong:
Second largest Chinese port shows exports down 14% since July.
40% of the Chinese toy companies are now insolvent.
Also see: ‘Credit crisis casts gloom over China’s exporters’ (October 14th, Associated Press)
For subsequent comments on HSBC (November 10th and November 14th) see here.
Over the last couple of weeks w’ve seen two directors selling shares in RBS (RBS, 214p):
Non exec Lawrence Fish sold 140,000 shares at 223.36p on September 22nd. This takes him to 182,309 shares. He had bought 119,000 shares in the June capital raising at 200p per share.
General Counsel and Group Secretary Miller McLean sold 60,000 shares at 248p on September 10th. He bought 526,000 shares in the June offer.
McLean owns over 1.3m shares in RBS, and Fish was recently apponted a non exec in May this year, having previously held an Executive position.
Are these share sales significant? Not yet.
Find other posts on RBS here.
There’s been a lot of hype surrounding Liberty International (LII, 984p) recently, with two ‘stakebuilders’ active (see Times comment below)
So it is interesting to see an announcement on Friday about a PDMR (senior management) individual exercising options and selling all the shares. ‘Normal’ behaviour across most situations where options are exercised, is to sell sufficient to pay all associated taxes (so around 40% of the exercised shares).
Liberty announced that (PDMR) Harold Newton had exercised 22638 shares, and sold the same number, leaving his holding unchanged at 93010 shares. One implication of this might be that Newton didn’t think it imperative to hold on to the 13,000 shares he didn’t need to sell for tax reasons.
From
August 23, 2008
‘Bid prospect puts new life into Liberty International
Market report
Bid speculation became the dominant theme in a rising market yesterday with much attention centred on Liberty International, the group behind shopping centres including Lakeside and Covent Garden.
Liberty rose 70p to 945p after news that Simon Property Group, one of the largest public real estate operators in America, had raised its stake in the company to 3.45 per cent.
Simon has been gradually and quietly building its stake in the British retail-focused real estate investment trust (Reit) for the past few months, taking advantage of its weak share price, dragged down by plummeting property valuations. This month Liberty reported a 7.4 per cent fall in the value of its portfolio and gave warning that the property market was unlikely to pick up in the near future.
It is understood that the two groups have a close relationship, but it is thought unlikely that Simon’s stake-building will lead to a bid. The 8 per cent rise in Liberty’s share price also reflected a degree of short squeezing as those who had been bearish on the company covered their positions.’
Robert Dickinson, a board member and former President and CEO of Carnival Cruise Lines at Carnival (CCL, 1793p) is using the recent bounce in the share price from a low of 1450p to sell down his holding in the Carnival and P&O cruise line business.
On June 24th he sold 18,000 shares at 1761p, realising £317,000.
On August 1st he sold 40,000 shares at 1864p, realising £715,000.
This leaves him with 160,000 shares in CCL.
Is Dickinson planning a cruise for his retirement, or does he think that the risks are on the downside for CCL ?
August 11th: Carnival announce that on August 8th Howard Frank, Vice Chairman and Chief operating Officer sold 66,000 shares at an average price of $ 39.6159 taking his holding in Carnival to 294,416 shares.
So now Frank and Dickinson between them have taken about $4.5m or £2 1/4m out of Carnival shares in the last 8 weeks. Not a positive indicator for the shares.
The ‘strength of signal’ derived from directors dealings moves from medium to STRONG.
I tend to concur with the Telegraph article of 29th June ‘Carnival shares no safe harbour’. Link to article here.
followthedirectors... a study of directors share dealings 