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HSBC- ‘Emerging Markets under Great Stress’

In his letter to the G 20 leaders on November 6, IMF Head Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that emerging markets were now under great stress as the “capital flows that have sustained growth dry up across the board” (Source-IMF website).

The Observer advises that investors will anxiously scan HSBCs third quarter trading statement for ‘signs the financial crisis is spreading to its Asian business‘ (Observer November 9th- Crunch Pummels HSBC again‘).

Our note of October 12th highlighted share sales by directors of HSBC (HSBA, 746p) at between 766p and 884p. We suggested that HSBCs outperformance against the other (UK) banks would come to an end as concerns over emerging markets grew. 

Since October 12th HSBC shares are down 6% absolute or down 16% against the FTSE 100.

Misys- Allscripts

The Wall Street Journal (November 5th WSJ ‘Inside Track’) picked up our story on the purchase of $350k of Allscripts (MDRX) by Misys CEO Mike Lawrie. Misys also announced that Glen Tullman, the CEO of Allscripts, had also bought shares in Allscripts, investing $511k by buying 100,000 shares at $5.11 on October 27th.

Allscripts (MDRX, $7.00) are up 26% since our comment of October 30.

Haynes – growth in DIY car care?

Since our comment of August 31st ‘Haynes directors buy for first time in 6 years‘ we have seen significant further purchases: Chairman JHC Haynes has bought 135,000 shares at between 150p and 155p, on November 3rd and 5th. Digitallook (website) say that takes him to 235,000 shares.

In Haynes’ (HYNS, 150p) First quarter Interim report to end August, the group announced they had seen sales in auto repair manuals up 10% in the US market and up 5% in the UK market (in local currency) for the quarter (for full interim statement see here, click on Press Releases). 

Next news? The interim statement in January.

International Personal Finance plc

Four directors have been buying shares in this doorstep provider of small loans in emerging markets. With their direct relationship with the borrowers, IPF (IPF 146p) are probably in a better position than the more remote large cap banks, and I suggest that the directors of the company have greater knowledge of current trading activity.

Next news is the mid December pre closing analyst briefing. See November 7th comment ‘ Loans provider Intl Personal Finance sees directors buying shares’.

Directors ARE buying shares.

Following our suggestion in last weeks Weekly Review that Directors Dealings were signalling a bottom in the stock market, we’ve looked at Directors Dealing activity in the smaller cap indices using the excellent Digitallook visual tools.

We looked at Directors dealings over one month, and counted the number of companies showing net selling of greater than GBP 50k versus net buying of greater than GBP 50k.

FTSE 350 showed 7 sells vs 52 buys

FTSE Small Cap showed 4 sells vs 21 buys, and

FTSE Aim showed 1 sell vs 46 buys !!!

 

Disclosure: The author holds share positions in the following: Misys, Haynes.

For all comments on the companies mentioned, use the ‘SEARCH’ box to the left of this post to search the followthedirectors site.

International Personal Finance (IPF, 137p) is an emerging markets small loans provider to 1.8m provident-mexico-customercustomers : ‘We pride ourselves in providing home credit in a responsible well managed way.  We provide, small, unsecured cash loans – typically sums equivalent to £200 – borrowed over a short period of between six months and two years'( Company website).

International Personal Finance KNOW THEIR CUSTOMERS which must be unusual nowadays, and something the US mortgage providers and banks wished they’d stuck to. You would therefore have to assume that they knew exactly what was going on in terms of default risk and loan performance.

So it is interesting to see the Non Executive Deputy Chairman Ray Miles doubling his holding by buying 100,000 shares yesterday at 135.7p, taking him to a holding of 211,000 shares.

Following an Interim Trading Statement on October 22nd, the Executive Chairman Christopher Rodriguez bought just over 30,000 shares at 163p taking his holding to 218,562 shares, and a Non Exec Director Nick Page doubled his holding by buying 24,539 shares at 163p. Charles Gregson, another Non Exec,  bought 6350 shares at 157p to take his holding to 58,000 shares.

The next catalyst on IPF is probably the pre close statement in mid December. Last year this was on December 12th.

View on Internatioal Personal Finance: Positive- directors buying shares.

Strength of Signal: Strong- Four directors buying, significant increase in shareholdings, near term catalyst.

Addendum Dec 11th 11.50am: Stock is up 10% today. I know of no new news, but then I wouldn’t as I am not ‘in the market’. A look at the company website shows that the pre close update is scheduled for December 17th, next Wednesday. This is likely to be a significant positive catalyst in view of the directors buying activity mentioned above.

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