September 12th: Simon Hope, Savills (SVS, 205p) Executive Director with responsibility for Capital Markets, sells 62283 Savills shares at 295p, taking his holding to 87,547 shares and raising GBP 183,797.

 

 

September 16th: followthedirectors comments: Savills – further to fall – Directors sell’

October 17th : ‘Savills Says Earnings Will Miss Analysts’ Estimates’ (Bloomberg article) : ‘this year’s pretax profit will miss analysts’ estimates because of the slump in transactions caused by the credit-market turmoil.’

I know that in these markets five weeks is a lifetime, but do you not think the board of Savills have had regular discussions about the risk to their profits and earnings in their weekly board meetings?

If you had followed Savills directors dealings and the followthedirectors commentary, then this news would be no surprise to you.

Find below the performance you might have achieved if you had followed our commentary (I list here the dates of my comments, and the share price performance between them): 

November 8th (followthedirectors say ‘don’t buy’). Performance to March 10th SVS down 5%

March 10th (‘results wednesday, watch out’) Performance to August 4th, SVS down 35% absolute, or down 13% relative to the FTSE 250.

August 4th (‘time to buy?‘) to September 12th, SVS up 33% absolute, or 32% relative, but Hope didn’t announce his sale until yesterday, so use August 4th to September 15th, SVS up 23% absolute, or up 25% relative.

September 16th (‘further to fall’) to today October 17th, SVS down 23%, but up 5% relative to the FTSE 250.

I would suggest that the risk in Savills remains distinctly on the downside.

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