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Now that the market seems to have woken up to the risks at Brambles (BXB, 210p, A$ 4.96) from a slowdown in world trade, and pricing pressure, I’m happy to close my negative view on Brambles.

We initially warned of the downside risk in the group following a directors share sale (Craig van der Laan de Vries) in late March 2008, when Brambles were trading above 420p.

We reiterated our caution in early June, ahead of what turned out to be a dismal trading update, resulting in the shares falling 14% on the day.

And lastly, last week we highlighted caution ahead of this weeks results, following which the shares fell by 20%.

So, whilst the outlook is likely to continue to deteriorate for Brambles, we feel that the recent share price correction has been indicative of the market now having a better understanding of the risks at Brambles.

Close negative view of Brambles:

March 23rd 2008 with 48% absolute return or 20% return relative to the market,

June 2nd 2008 with 44% absolute return or 16% return relative to the market,

February 10th 2009 with 25% absolute return or 20% return relative to the market.

For all our posts please read

Brambles (BXB, $5.64) disappoints.  Stock falls 12%.

We warned last week of the inherent risk in these interim results, in ‘Brambles- thorny results due February 19th’. Management must have thought it prudent to release results a few days earlier than expected.

We first highlighted a negative opinion on the stock following Craig van der Laans share sale in March last year, raising GBP 700,000. Since then Brambles shares are down 41% in A$ terms, 10% points more than the AORD index. For all our comments on Brambles click here.

Bloomberg commented a few hours ago:

“Brambles Ltd.’s first-half profit dropped 28 percent, prompting the world’s biggest supplier of pallets used to move and store goods to cut operations in the U.S. and eliminate 750 jobs. Net income fell to $212.8 million in the six months to Dec. 31 from $293.7 million in the year-earlier period, Sydney-based Brambles said today in a statement.

Revenue fell 2 percent to $2.07 billion; shareholders will receive an interim dividend of 17.5 Australian cents a share. The U.S. is in the midst of a credit crisis that lies at the heart of the worst global recession since World War II. The country’s labor market has lost 3.6 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007 after companies from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to General Motors Corp. announced payroll cuts.

“Brambles is, of course, not immune to the dramatic slowdown in key markets and our results reflect this,” Chief Executive Officer Mike Ihlein said in the statement to the Australian stock exchange. “Consequently, it is important we take decisive actions now to underpin our future performance.””

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July 2022